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Only two days prior to the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just the winner overall, and precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win although failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in readership and most voters favored Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

What was your election night?

It was necessary because they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the tally every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous initially: Mamdani led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of ballots that came in later and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible in which election day went somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. However Mamdani gained half a million votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

How did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president last year backed the progressive this year. But it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I figured we might exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to get over 50%. He has 50.4% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it so afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any area. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative area. That really surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these Republicans on the island with a strong turnout. I think there was significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it before Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for the candidate dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. Thus there existed a little resistance. However overall, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on if the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Likewise in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. And also, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. So I don’t know if existed major surprises here, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be additional examples – people will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I think that each urban center in America can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.