A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
